Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 93447.129495 98542.921461 103636.418328 109106.207612 114810.362853 120580.031786 126853.583997
2025-11-02 84940.689452 92715.082735 100701.145312 109507.385940 118935.017557 128714.594103 139615.530657
2025-11-09 78623.930206 88194.105942 98238.398809 109545.084465 121896.780355 134958.622172 149793.912094
2025-11-16 74542.244396 85535.620421 97280.813527 110728.077228 125662.101560 141702.359852 160196.723683
2025-11-23 70430.543834 82466.890811 95530.849808 110712.685702 127817.479489 146439.149381 168190.534782
2025-11-30 67906.445593 80944.444125 95293.613658 112188.141961 131462.463876 152692.733220 177769.872866
2025-12-07 65427.171796 79291.308125 94746.909006 113163.753513 134416.717575 158076.506664 186307.511414
2025-12-14 62654.294699 77138.896563 93484.461058 113183.946151 136163.169682 162000.475841 193121.771531
2025-12-21 60324.208686 75379.045229 92563.334574 113493.633204 138153.563567 166136.431725 200135.564134
2025-12-28 58951.930261 74670.508908 92800.563662 115095.878846 141602.459202 171930.809582 209067.694006
2026-01-04 57465.234712 73746.969867 92716.160333 116259.189511 144491.697556 177050.213760 217213.317261
2026-01-11 55852.342010 72596.899620 92296.544835 116964.890577 146793.802403 181454.395705 224513.668731
2026-01-18 54039.414356 71152.476420 91484.861423 117174.512508 148498.052668 185171.004618 231051.540815
2026-01-25 52473.474264 69956.956820 90927.449933 117651.996112 150497.791343 189230.416780 238012.331670
2026-02-01 50793.284362 68556.567565 90063.014697 117703.005535 151939.735401 192596.848353 244136.295894
2026-02-08 49805.067971 67990.192375 90197.587926 118960.005495 154841.363357 197724.370893 252406.831740
2026-02-15 48270.825222 66672.898143 89345.332612 118944.179112 156138.781190 200881.765679 258279.220399
2026-02-22 47557.930780 66385.064424 89766.615882 120508.947991 159392.211059 206438.368610 267112.462769
2026-03-01 46645.531331 65803.633179 89786.410061 121543.449590 161970.241642 211165.686680 274946.434660
2026-03-08 45329.987285 64650.995077 89037.283272 121564.864417 163247.605393 214270.254497 280776.114148
2026-03-15 44212.262711 63725.268836 88549.384870 121893.218526 164893.274720 217824.055843 287170.432180
2026-03-22 43732.700259 63633.153087 89130.032502 123591.888514 168284.868120 223573.859017 296338.421576
2026-03-29 43082.782193 63288.724789 89362.251649 124825.052671 171076.461739 228578.466423 304597.921842